Small-scale rainbands often form downwind of mountainous terrain. Although relatively small in scale (a few tens of km across by up to ~100 km in length), these often poorly forecast bands can cause localised flooding as they can be associated with intense precipitation over several hours due to the anchoring effect of orography (Barrett et al., 2013). Figure 1 shows a flash flood caused by a rainband situated over Cockermouth in 2009. In some regions of southern France orographic banded convection can contribute 40% of the total rainfall (Cosma et al., 2002). Rainbands occur in various locations and under different synoptic regimes and environmental conditions making them difficult to examine their properties and determine their occurrence in a systematic way (Kirshbaum et al. 2007a,b, Fairman et al. 2016). My PhD considers the ability of current operational forecast models to represent these bands and the environmental controls on their formation.
What is a rainband?
- A cloud and precipitation structure associated with an area of rainfall which is significantly elongated
- Stationary (situated over the same location) with continuous triggering
- Can form in response to moist, unstable air following over complex terrain
- Narrow in width ~2-10 km with varying length scales from 10 – 100’s km
To examine the ability of current operational forecast models to represent these bands a case study was chosen which was first introduced by Barrett, et al. (2016). The radar observations during the event showed a clear band along The Great Glen Fault, Scotland (Figure 3). However, Barrett, et al. (2016) concluded that neither the operational forecast or the operational ensemble forecast captured the nature of the rainband. For more information on ensemble models see one of our previous blog posts by David Flack Showers: How well can we predict them?.
Localised convergence and increased convective available potential energy along the fault supported the formation of the rainband. To determine the effect of model resolution on the model’s representation of the rainband, a forecast was performed with the horizontal gird spacing decreased to 500 m from 1.5 km. In this forecast a rainband formed in the correct location which generated precipitation accumulations close to those observed, but with a time displacement. The robustness of this forecast skill improvement is being assessed by performing an ensemble of these convection-permitting simulations. Results suggest that accurate representation of these mesoscale rainbands requires resolutions higher than those used operationally by national weather centres.
Idealised numerical simulations have been used to investigate the environmental conditions leading to the formation of these rainbands. The theoretical dependence of the partitioning of dry flow over and around mountains on the non-dimensional mountain height is well understood. For this project I examine the effect of this dependence on rainband formation in a moist environment. Preliminary analysis of the results show that the characteristics of rainbands are controlled by more than just the non-dimensional mountain height, even though this parameter is known to be sufficient to determine flow behaviour relative to mountains.
This work has been funded by the Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) under the project PREcipitation STructures over Orography (PRESTO), for more project information click here.
Barrett, A. I., S. L. Gray, D. J. Kirshbaum, N. M. Roberts, D. M. Schultz, and J. G. Fairman, 2015: Synoptic Versus Orographic Control on Stationary Convective Banding. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1101–1113, doi:10.1002/qj.2409.
— 2016: The Utility of Convection-Permitting Ensembles for the Prediction of Stationary Convective Bands. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 10931114, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0148.1.
Cosma, S., E. Richard, and F. Minsicloux, 2002: The Role of Small-Scale Orographic Features in the Spatial Distribution of Precipitation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 75–92, doi:10.1256/00359000260498798.
Fairman, J. G., D. M. Schultz, D. J. Kirshbaum, S. L. Gray, and A. I. Barrett, 2016: Climatology of Banded Precipitation over the Contiguous United States. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144,4553–4568, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0015.1.
Kirshbaum, D. J., G. H. Bryan, R. Rotunno, and D. R. Durran, 2007a: The Triggering of Orographic Rainbands by Small-Scale Topography. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1530–1549, doi:10.1175/JAS3924.1.
Kirshbaum, D. J., R. Rotunno, and G. H. Bryan, 2007b: The Spacing of Orographic Rainbands Triggered by Small-Scale Topography. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 4222–4245, doi:10.1175/2007JAS2335.1.